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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-22T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27043/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption near AR 3435 (approximately (N08E17). The liftoff can be seen starting around 2023-09-22T01:28Z in SDO AIA 193/304. There is also an M1.2 flare just after the start of the filament eruption from this AR starting at 2023-09-22T02:25Z, followed by post-eruptive loops best seen in SDO AIA 131/193. Brightening can also be seen in this region in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-22T07:36Z CME or the combined arrival of these two CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T19:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes: Based on multi-CME simulation available on NOAA/SWPC homepage issued 2023-09-22T19:11Z combined with G1 Watch at time of submission and below 3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast issued 2023-09-22T22:05Z:

:Product: Geomagnetic Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Sep 22 2205 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 21 Sep 010
Estimated Ap 22 Sep 008
Predicted Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 018-022-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Active                25/25/35
Minor storm           35/35/20
Moderate storm        20/20/01
Strong-Extreme storm  05/05/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 23 Sep - 25 Sep
             Sep 23    Sep 24    Sep 25
00-03UT        3.00      5.00      4.00      
03-06UT        2.33      4.33      3.67      
06-09UT        2.00      3.67      3.33      
09-12UT        2.33      3.00      3.00      
12-15UT        3.00      2.33      2.33      
15-18UT        3.00      3.00      2.33      
18-21UT        4.00      3.00      2.00      
21-00UT        5.00      3.33      2.33

Lead Time: 48.68 hour(s)
Difference: 16.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-09-22T19:11Z

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